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Poisson distribution is a method that works best for calculating statistics in sports where scoring is rare and happens in ⚾️ increments of one. This is why it is most widely used in association football, and occasionally in hockey, but not ⚾️ really utilised elsewhere – at least, not successfully.

That’s why, in this article, we’re going to focus on the former in ⚾️ particular, and why much of what we’ll write will be applicable to football alone. With that said, let’s begin…

Poisson distribution is a method of calculating the most likely score in a sporting event such as football. Used ⚾️ by many experienced gamblers to help shape their strategies, it relies on the calculation of attack and defence strength to ⚾️ reach a final figure.

A mathematical concept, Poisson distribution works by converting mean averages into a probability. If we say, for ⚾️ example, that the football club we’re looking at scores an average of 1.7 goals in each of their games, the ⚾️ formula would give us the following probabilities:

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